CHANGE IS A CONSTANT: October 2008

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Hopeful Comments

The New York Times
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October 17, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT

Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Fail Forward

Judas Goat

The Judas goat is trained to associate with sheep or cattle, leading them to a specific destination. In stockyards, a Judas goat will lead sheep to slaughter, while its own life is spared. Judas goats are also used to lead other animals to specific pens and on to trucks.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Fed Bail-Out

Merrill Lynch statement today indicates that the Credit Contraction being experienced is of a secular credit contraction nature versus a less painful and quicker cyclical credit crunch.

Europe, China and the Far East all share in the financial suffering.

Overnight trading produced dramatic drops in all markets as the crisis spreads!

Rare Wisdom.

Warren Buffett

IT DOES NOT TAKE MANY WORDS TO SPEAK THE TRUTH. ___CHIEF JOSEPH.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Television News

The world is in a massive financial crisis and it seems like reporters of the news add to the terrible anxiety already present in this situation.

With few exceptions Pot is not legal to possess or cultivate in Canada, while on the other hand,

our society has promoted noxious cigarettes and a powerful mind altering substance that is known to lead to aggressive and violent behavior in users.

And turns a blind eye to the farming of opium in Afghanistan. Canadians are fighting to liberate this country from an oppressive regime. Heroin production finances the terrorists and exports death and addiction to our country.

Vancouver Island News

Canada gave serious thought to legalizing marijuana but received such an outcry from our neighbor to the south that the proposal was dropped. We put people in jail for involvement with a commonplace recreational drug and we should come to our senses.

Bumper crop of bud expected
Outdoor plots are on the increase say police and weather has helped out

Dustin Walker
The Star

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

After a couple years of dismal outdoor marijuana harvests due to rainy weather, Vancouver Island could see a bumper crop of bud this fall.

Some growers have already harvested their pot plants, often hidden away in secret gardens deep in the woods, but the optimal time to harvest marijuana is normally the first week of October, said Ted Smith, who teaches a free course about hemp and Cannabis -- called Hempology 101 -- at the University of Victoria.

He thinks that if current weather holds for the next couple weeks, this season will mark the start of the crop's recovery on the Island.

Vancouver Island's mild climate often provides ideal conditions for growing marijuana, but the past two years have been hit with rainy summers and little sunlight, which can cause plants to rot.

This has led to more people growing pot indoors, instead of going through the hassle of tending to an outdoor crop concealed within a forest, said Smith.

"There haven't been a lot of new people getting into (growing pot outdoors).

"There might be more next year, with this year kind of recovering," said Smith.

In the Nanaimo area, police have noticed more outdoor marijuana-growing operations this year compared to previous years, said Const. Gary O'Brien.

In July, police busted an 800-plant outdoor growing operation in the Bowser area.

"It was quite a significant year for outdoor grows," he said.

"Weather was a factor this year."

Although indoor operations can lead to fires and other hazards, said O'Brien, outdoor operations aren't any safer.

Hikers can stumble onto booby-traps left by growers to protect their crops, he said.

But Nanaimo marijuana advocate Richard Payne said organized gangs are usually the only ones who go to such lengths to protect massive crops.

The "common guy" who grows pot on the Island would usually have just 20-30 plants hidden in the bush.

"All around this time you'll have different people who are harvesting," said Payne, who is trying to set up a marijuana-buyers club for sick people in Nanaimo.

"It think it's probably been a pretty good season so far."

Both Smith and Payne said people who grow marijuana outdoors worry more about animals munching on their plants or thieves finding them than police confiscating the pot.

"Far more plants are stolen every year by thieves than police actually get.

"The bush in general is seeing a lot more people out and about," said Smith.

"It's a really stressful thing, growing, at times because you're always worried about who's going to rip you off," said Payne.

Although it has its challenges, Smith said people will never stop growing marijuana in the forests of Vancouver Island.

"Outdoor is always going to have its fans. It's easy, you don't need to be paying rent and deal with a whole bunch of other factors."

© Harbour City Star 2008

Just Try.

Failure is the foundation of success, and the means by which it is achieved.
____ Lao Tzu

Setbacks are simply evidence of a need for change and a chance to learn. If you want to be successful, double your failure rate. Learn from your mistakes.

A vision without a task is but a dream, a task without vision is drudgery, a vision and a task are the hope of the world.